After Extra Time
The True Affects of Extra Time on Next Game Performance (English Leagues Only).
One of my 'swerve' rules has always been to avoid betting on teams whose last game ended in the match (a maximum of five days ago) going to extra time.
The reasons for such omissions are simple, in as much that such teams may well suffer more from the effects of fatigue more than their opponents.
However is this attitude too simplistic ?
Is there really any statistical evidence to support the assertion that such teams, hereafter known as 'AET teams', are less likely to gain a favourable result in their proceeding match…?
Our team looked at the results of all such games between 2000 and 2003 to try and provide an empirical conclusion.
Most Significant Results
In comparison to the general industry standard ( IS - see appendices 1 ) AET teams whose next match after playing extra time is at home are -6.56% less likely to win a game in relation to industry standard.
Similarly AET teams playing their next match away from home show a massive 11.17% reduction of winning the game in relation to IS ( this also helps to explain a +11.38% positive shift in the likelihood of their home opponents beating them ).
Other notable shifts are in relation to draws. AET teams playing away in their next game enjoy a +4.20% likelihood of gaining a draw. Similarly AET teams playing there next match at home also show an increased likelihood of gaining a draw of +6.90%.
The above results obviously show that playing extra time can have an affect on next game performance.
For instance, it could be argued that home wins are the stable diet of most successful punters. Therefore anything that is statistically shown to decrease the performance of home wins is well worth swerving.
Similarly why would we back an AET team if their next match is an away game, when only 11.17% of such games in the last three seasons have resulted in an away win ?
Obviously everything still needs to be taken into account such as form, team news, team selection in the AET game etc etc…however IMO the safest bet is still to 'swerve' AET teams who fall into the above categories.
Working the Percentages
As always our team has back tested possible systems ( to level stakes ) to see if there are any future systems that may be backable.
Initially the high percentage of draws is of immense interest!
Obviously if bookies are offering 3.30 - 3.50 for many draws in the 4 English leagues, then an overall draw rate of 31.40% could produce a positive yield, and so it proved with a positive yield of +4.06%. The reasons for such omissions are simple, in as much that such teams may well suffer more from the effects of fatigue more than their opponents.
However is this attitude too simplistic?
Also the decrease in home wins coupled with a higher frequency in draws meant that backing X2 against AET teams whose next match is at home, also produced a positive yield of +5.06%. In a betting community where is it estimated by bookies that only 3% of punters can claim profitability ( the other 97% just claim they do !!! ) even such small yields maybe worthy of keeping an eye on.
However some may consider that constantly monitoring which games go to extra time may not be worth the effort for such a small yield.
The Effects of Morale and Motivation
Having been fortunate enough to have worked within football for many years, the affects of extra time can also be looked at in terms of motivation and morale.
It is my experience that teams who have played in AET games can respond in a couple of ways in their next game, often dependant on the result achieved, for instance a team who have secured a victory can often gain a renewed sense of team spirit.
They have come through an ordeal together and can benefit from the experience, especially if the win has been secured against a team they were not expected to beat. Similarly a team who has lost after extra time can often become even more demoralised. An attitude of ' 120 mins for nothing ' can prevail, which decreases morale and often motivation.
With the above in mind, our team assessed the performance of teams by comparing the various yields for AET teams who had won their AET game, in comparison to those who had lost.
Basically there was absolutely no positive yields found until an assessment of losing AET teams was backed in relation to draws.
Amazingly teams who had lost an AET game and then played either away or home ( 75 games in total ) secured draws in 43.75% of these games. Not only does this represent a massive + 16.90% increase on IS, but when backed to level stakes provides an astounding +31.06% yield !!!
Whilst this unusually high yield is only over 75 games - certainly it is one to keep an eye on. Also it has produced positive yields for all of the last three seasons.
Appendices
1. Industry standard for 2000/2003 - ( approx figures uk leagues )
Homes = 46.92%
Draws = 26.85%
Aways = 26.23%